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太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1. 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系, 北京市 100084; 2. 电力系统国家重点实验室, 清华大学, 北京市 100084; 3. 中国电力科学研究院, 北京市100192; 4. 国网冀北电力有限公司, 北京市 100053)

摘要:

掌握光伏发电的随机特性对于含光伏发电的电力系统规划及运行具有重要意义。提出了一种光伏电站出力随机特性的分析方法,将光伏发电出力的确定性因素与不确定因素相分离,首先采用全球太阳辐射强度模型对光伏发电出力的确定性成分建模,同时引入光伏出力遮挡因子的概念对光伏发电出力的不确定性成分建模,从而形成光伏发电出力的完整模型描述。采用实证分析的方法,从概率分布、波动特性等方面研究了光伏出力遮挡因子的随机特性,并分析了光伏出力的空间相关性。

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Analysis of Mid/Long Term Random Characteristics of Photovoltaic Power Generation
Author:
Affiliation:

(1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China; 4. State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited, Beijing 100053, China)

Abstract:

In light of the significance of the random characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) power generation to research on power system planning and operation involving PV, an analytic method is proposed for assessing the stochastic characteristics of PV power stations by separating the certainty and uncertainty stochastic parts of PV output time series. The global solar radiation model is adopted first to model the certainty part of the PV output, while the concept of PV output shedding factor is introduced to assess the uncertainty part of PV output to form a complete model description. By means of empirical analysis of real data of PV, the stochastic characteristics of the PV output shedding factor, in terms of the probabilistic distribution and the intermittency are investigated along with the spatial correlation of PV output.

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引用本文
[1]张曦,康重庆,张宁,等.太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(6):6-13. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20131009012.
ZHANG Xi, KANG Chongqing, ZHANG Ning, et al. Analysis of Mid/Long Term Random Characteristics of Photovoltaic Power Generation[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2014, 38(6):6-13. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20131009012.
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  • 收稿日期:2013-10-09
  • 最后修改日期:2014-02-19
  • 录用日期:2013-12-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2014-02-12
  • 出版日期:
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