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新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用
作者:
作者单位:

1.浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市 310027;2.智慧城市物联网国家重点实验室(澳门大学),澳门

摘要:

高比例新能源已成为中国电力系统发展的突出特征,间歇性新能源发电的不确定性给电力系统安全与经济运行带来极大挑战。准确可靠的供需预测是新能源电力系统分析与运行控制的基础,传统确定性预测难以消除预测误差,概率预测可实现对预测不确定性的有效量化,为电力系统分析与运行控制提供关键信息支撑。文中对新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及应用进行了系统综述:首先,从预测对象、时间尺度、概率预测形式、性能评价指标等方面介绍了新能源电力系统概率预测的基本概念;其次,系统综述了新能源电力系统概率预测的基本理论与方法;然后,总结了概率预测在新能源电力系统中的多场景应用;最后,对新能源电力系统概率预测存在的问题做了归纳,并对其发展趋势进行了展望。

关键词:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB0905000);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51877189);中国科协“青年人才托举工程”资助项目(2018QNRC001)。

通信作者:

作者简介:

万灿(1986—),男,通信作者,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:新能源电力系统预测与优化控制、综合能源系统与智能配电网、人工智能及其应用。E-mail:canwan@zju.edu.cn
宋永华(1964—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:智能电网和低碳电力。E-mail:yhsong@um.edu.mo


Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau, China

Abstract:

High penetration of renewable energy has become a prominent feature of the development of power systems in China. The uncertainty of intermittent renewable energy generation brings great challenges to the safe and economic operation of power systems. Accurate and reliable supply and demand forecasting is the basis of the analysis, operation, and control of the power systems with renewable energy sources. However, the forecasting error is difficult to be eliminated through the traditional deterministic forecasting. Probabilistic forecasting can effectively quantify the forecasting uncertainty and provide key information to the analysis, operation, and control of power systems. This paper systematically reviews the theories, methodologies and applications of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources. Firstly, the basic concepts of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are introduced, including forecasting objects, time scales, probabilistic forecasting forms and performance evaluation indices. Secondly, the basic theories and methodologies of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are reviewed. Then the multi-scenario applications of probabilistic forecasting in the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized. Finally, the problems in the probabilistic forecasting of the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized and the development trend is prospected.

Keywords:

Foundation:
This work is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2018YFB0905000), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51877189) and Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by China Association of Science and Technology (No. 2018QNRC001).
引用本文
[1]万灿,宋永华.新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用[J].电力系统自动化,2021,45(1):2-16. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20200811008.
WAN Can, SONG Yonghua. Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2021, 45(1):2-16. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20200811008.
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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-01
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-05
  • 出版日期:
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