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A Generation Rights Bilateral Trade Model Based on Zeuthen Strategy and Bayesian Learning

1.Institute of Energy Economics and Environment,North China Electric Power University,Beijing102206,China;2.Foshan Power Supply Bureau,Guangdong Power Grid Corporation,Foshan528000,China

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    The increasingly intensified energy supply gap and ever severe environmental pollutions are key issues in China.Trading of power generation right could offer a solution to alleviate the above problems and allows for extra profit among the contracting parties.Setting the price is a critical part of the trading process,because the contracting parties both want to maximize their own benefit.A negotiation model is established for this purpose.Firstly,both parties estimate the base price of the opponent according to the prior knowledge,and then update the probability distribution using Bayesian method.Secondly,the risk tolerance of each party is tested and compared via a Zeuthen decision model,and a decision is made whether to remain the price unchanged or to change it within the smallest concession range.Finally,the final contracting price is made over several rounds of negotiations.Study results show that the price calculated via the above model is in keep with the theoretical optimal solution of Nash product.

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SONG Yihang,TANG Xiaotang,ZHANG Huijuan,et al.A Generation Rights Bilateral Trade Model Based on Zeuthen Strategy and Bayesian Learning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(11):51-57.DOI:10.7500/AEPS201208264

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  • Received:August 30,2012
  • Revised:May 07,2013
  • Adopted:February 01,2013
  • Online: March 12,2013
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